Each row is a question that gets a number. The link is one you can ask.
Rain, snow, sunshine, wind, humidity, UV, and daily high/low temperature thresholds for any city, up to 15 days ahead with ensembles and beyond that from climatology.
Ensemble member counts (ECMWF, NOAA GFS, DWD ICON) blended with 35 years of ERA5 climatology. A past-window replay of the climatology piece is in the engine. No score is shown until that run is stored on the live series.
Data: Open-Meteo Ensemble API · ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis
Will a price close above/below a level on a date, or touch it before a date. “Tank”, “crash”, or “plunge” means the session closes at least 2% below the prior close, unless the question names a different percent. The stock market is the S&P 500. Crypto and stocks use free daily data, cached about an hour. A live brokerage tick is not the feed.
Lognormal + Merton jump-diffusion with a news-driven jump rate. A past-window replay of the finish formula is in the engine. No score is shown until that run is stored on the live series.
Data: Coinbase Exchange · Yahoo Finance · GDELT news coverage
CPI and core CPI inflation, unemployment, the fed funds rate or the upper bound of its target range, and real GDP growth. A band (0.1% to 0.5%) and “any quarter” or “any month” across a span are read as that bet.
Empirical distribution of historical changes over the same horizon, plus a robust random walk. A span that asks “any quarter” or “any month” uses joint historical paths, so neighboring periods share one history instead of being treated as independent.
Data: FRED · BLS · BEA · Federal Reserve H.15
Whether a named war is still active or has a ceasefire, whether major sanctions are still in force, and whether a named leader still holds office. “Will country A attack country B this week” is not a strike count. If the two sides are a catalogued war, the file that can be scored is whether that war is still active, and the curve is monthly.
Kaplan–Meier survival on comparable episodes, shifted by a bargaining model (war costs and power balance) or by regime-specific leader hazards. The 62/38 blend weights are a fixed scale, not a fit to how those wars ended. Only catalogued wars, sanctions, and leaders are scored.
Data: Conflict duration reference class · World Bank military spending · GDELT
Whether the FOMC cuts, hikes, or holds at a given meeting.
Actor model: logistic reaction function fitted on monthly effective-funds moves since 1990, then mapped onto the named meeting. That is not a fit to the committee vote record.
Data: FRED · BLS · Federal Reserve H.15
Annual inflation, unemployment, real GDP growth, population growth, trade and exports as a share of GDP, the current account, and extreme poverty for several dozen countries and the euro area, against a percent threshold.
Historical changes keep their average move. The normal walk expects no change from the latest reading.
Data: World Bank World Development Indicators
Whether at least one earthquake at or above a magnitude (5 or greater) happens worldwide, in a named seismic region, or near a city, by a date.
Poisson process. The rate is the USGS catalog count since 1990, blended with the last 15 years. A short window after a busy month leans on that cluster. Aftershocks are not removed from the rate. Worldwide magnitude 5.5 and under over a long window sits near certainty.
Data: USGS earthquake catalog
Whether at least one Atlantic hurricane, major hurricane, or tropical storm happens in a calendar year, or makes landfall on the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coast, a named coastal state, Puerto Rico, the Gulf Coast, or the East Coast.
Share of years since 1970 in NOAA HURDAT2 with at least one matching event, blended with the last 20 years. For the current season, only years that were still quiet by today's day-of-year are used. No trend is assumed.
Data: NOAA HURDAT2
Whether U.S. corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, barley, or oat yield per harvested acre finishes above or below a bushel threshold in a given year. A named state is not the national series, so it stays a request.
Historical year-to-year changes keep their average move. The normal walk expects no change from the latest yield.
Data: USDA ERS feed-grains, oil-crops, and wheat yearbooks
Whether the European Central Bank cuts, hikes, or holds the deposit facility rate at a meeting, or whether that rate is above or below a level in a named month.
Actor model: a logistic reaction function on the Taylor-rule gap and the last move, fitted on ECB data since 1999.
Data: ECB Data Portal
Whether the Bank of England cuts, hikes, or holds Bank Rate at a meeting, or whether that rate is above or below a level in a named month.
Actor model: a logistic reaction function on the Taylor-rule gap and the last move, fitted on Bank Rate, ONS CPI, and ONS unemployment since 1997.
Data: Bank of England · Office for National Statistics
Whether at least one wildfire of 1,000 acres or more (or a named larger size) is discovered in a calendar year, in one state or anywhere in the United States.
Share of years since 2015 in the WFIGS incident file, blended with the last 5 complete years. For the current year, only years that were still quiet by today are used. No trend is assumed.
Data: NIFC WFIGS incident locations
Whether a city's month sets a new high or low against its own ERA5 history. A specific day, a temperature threshold, and a whole state stay unanswered.
One extreme per month since 1991. If years are exchangeable, a new record has probability 1/(n+1). No trend is assumed.
Data: Open-Meteo Historical Weather API (ERA5)
Whether a named U.S. company files at least a given number of original 8-Ks, 10-Ks, 10-Qs, or earnings reports (8-K item 2.02) in a calendar year. The count is by filing date. Revenue, EPS, and a beat or miss stay unanswered.
Share of complete years in EDGAR with at least that many filings, blended with the last 5. No trend is assumed.
Data: SEC EDGAR submissions
Whether the FDA approves at least a given number of original new drugs, or new molecular entities, in a calendar year. A named brand uses its approval date in the file. Generics, revenue, and a beat stay unanswered.
Share of years since 1990 in Drugs@FDA, blended with the last 5. No trend is assumed.
Data: openFDA Drugs@FDA
Whether NASA, as the launch provider, flies at least a given number of launches in a calendar year. A named mission uses its catalog row once it has left the pad. A TBD date is not a launch, and a NASA payload on another rocket is not included. Artemis III stays unanswered while its date is TBD. The annual NASA rate is not used in its place.
Share of years since 1958, blended with the last 10. The recent record is thin, so the range stays wide.
Data: Launch Library
Whether Tesla's vehicle production or deliveries for a calendar year finish at or above, or at or below, a count. Production is the first number on the Total row. Deliveries is the second. Another company's count, a customer total, and a beat or miss stay unanswered.
Two measured layers. Seasonal completion scales the quarters already printed by how the rest of the year finished before (weight 0.6). The second layer adds those earlier unfinished quarters onto this year's printed sum (weight 0.4). No demand multiplier and no game-theory adjustment: there is no free series for how far the printed count sits from cars actually built. A year with all four Total rows is their sum.
Data: SEC EDGAR Tesla production exhibits
Whether a named MLB player is credited with a home run in their next scheduled game. The chance is that player's share of games with a home run. A name missing from the registry, a log under 20 games, and a team with no game on the schedule stay without a percentage.
Share of games in the MLB hitting log with at least one home run.
Data: MLB Stats API
Whether a person is already named on the Wikidata cast list of the next film in a series. A name missing from that list is not a percentage, because advance lists are often unfinished.
The published cast list. A later recast is not modeled.
Data: Wikidata · Wikipedia
Whether a public role ends on a named day, when the file already has an end date. A person still in the role has no day-by-day retirement series, so that question stays without a percentage.
The position end date already in Wikidata.
Data: Wikidata · Wikipedia
A name that is not on this list gets no percent.
Wars: Russia–Ukraine war, Israel–Hamas war, Sudanese civil war, Myanmar civil war, Yemeni civil war, Syrian civil war.
Sanctions: Sanctions on Russia, Sanctions on Iran, Sanctions on Venezuela, Sanctions on Cuba, Sanctions on North Korea, Sanctions on Syria.
Leaders: Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Narendra Modi, Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, Kim Jong Un, Ali Khamenei, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
30 accepted questions are waiting on a model. Builder list
In build order. The first open box is next.
Daily weather
Open-Meteo. Rain, snow, sun, wind, humidity, UV, and temperature.
Prices
Coinbase daily candles for crypto and Yahoo daily closes for stocks, cached about an hour. The published forecast refreshes about every two hours. A live brokerage tick is not the feed.
U.S. economy
FRED, BLS, and BEA. Includes a percent band, any quarter or month in a span, and the funds-rate upper bound.
Federal Reserve decisions
The same free macro series, as a reaction function.
Economies outside the U.S.
World Bank open data. Inflation, unemployment, GDP, and population growth.
Catalogued wars, sanctions, and leaders
Public timelines. A case that is not in the catalog stays a request.
Large earthquakes
USGS catalog. Magnitude 5 and up.
Hurricanes
NOAA HURDAT2, one cached file. Atlantic counts and U.S. or state landfall for a calendar year.
U.S. crop yields
USDA ERS yearbooks. National corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, barley, and oats. A named state stays a request.
ECB and Bank of England
ECB deposit facility rate and Bank Rate. Cut, hold, or hike, and the level of the rate.
Wildfire
WFIGS incident locations. U.S. only, 1,000 acres and up, one state or the whole country, one calendar year.
Monthly temperature records
ERA5, already used for weather. A city month against its own record. No warming trend is put in the number.
More country statistics
The same World Bank feed. Trade and exports as a share of GDP, the current account, and extreme poverty.
Company filings
SEC EDGAR. Original 8-K, 10-K, and 10-Q counts, plus earnings reports as 8-K item 2.02. Not a revenue forecast.
FDA decisions
openFDA Drugs@FDA. Original NDA and BLA approvals, and new molecular entities, since 1990. Not a generic.
Launches
Launch Library. NASA as the launch provider. The recent record is thin, so the range stays wide.
Tesla vehicle production
The Total row in Tesla's quarterly production 8-K. Two historical layers, and no invented demand or incentive weight. Customer counts stay a request.
Congress rosterNext
Not in the live catalog until this kind has a scored row. A race for office stays without a number.
Candidate races and named bills
Who wins an office, and whether a named bill moves, stay requests until a free public series can settle them.
Open-ended questions
Later. A language model on every question costs money to keep on. The parsers stay free.
Sports beyond MLB home runs
A home run in the next scheduled MLB game is live (see Home runs). Pitchers, parks, other sports, and season totals stay requests.
Film credits
A lookup of the published Wikidata cast list. Missing names stay without a percentage. There is no advance-casting model behind the number.
Named retirements
A position that already has an end date is a published fact (tenure). A person still in the role has no day-by-day retirement series, so tomorrow stays without a percentage.
Option-implied prices
Later. Options histories are usually licensed. Price forecasts stay on free daily closes.