Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
Read as: Will at least one earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater occur in California between 2026-10-08 and 2035-12-31?
· USGS earthquake catalog
Probability of yes
0%range 0–2%
Counts magnitude 8+ earthquakes in California since 1990 and over the last 15 years, then treats arrivals as a Poisson process. The two rates are blended. The catalog is reliable at this magnitude; smaller quakes are not modeled.
Data · U.S. Geological Survey — earthquake catalog
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 10, 2026, 07:02 UTC
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?Market
30%
Our model
0%
Scale, −50 to +50
Model lower0 in lineModel higher
−50+50
Zero means the two numbers match. Distance is how far apart they are, not a profit. The market figure is a price.