Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 9?
Read as: Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close at or above $86,000 on October 9, 2026?
Resolved no · · Coinbase Exchange daily close (UTC)
ResultNo
Forecast was
Three independent price models are averaged: a volatility-only lognormal model, a Merton jump-diffusion simulation (12,000 paths) whose jump rate rises with news coverage, and a replay of every comparable window in Bitcoin's history with its average trend removed. No drift is assumed anywhere, so the model takes no directional view.
Data · Coinbase Exchange market data (daily candles)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Polymarket · updated Oct 9, 2026, 16:18 UTC
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 9?24h volume 113,684 USDC
Market
0%
Our model
1%
Scale, −50 to +50
Zero means the two numbers match. Distance is how far apart they are, not a profit. The market figure is a price.