Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?
Read as: Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trade at or above $102,500 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026 (daily close basis)?
· Coinbase Exchange daily close (UTC)
Probability of yes
Three independent price models are averaged: a volatility-only lognormal model, a Merton jump-diffusion simulation (12,000 paths) whose jump rate rises with news coverage, and a replay of every comparable window in Bitcoin's history with its average trend removed. No drift is assumed anywhere, so the model takes no directional view.
Data · Coinbase Exchange market data (daily candles)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Polymarket · updated Oct 9, 2026, 06:01 UTC
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?24h volume 70,923 USDC
Market
2%
Our model
4%
Scale, −50 to +50
Zero means the two numbers match. Distance is how far apart they are, not a profit. The market figure is a price.