Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 5-11?
Read as: Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trade at or above $90,000 at any time from October 5, 2026 through October 11, 2026 (daily close basis)?
· Coinbase Exchange daily close (UTC)
Probability of yes
Three price models are averaged: a volatility-only lognormal, a Merton jump-diffusion (12,000 paths) whose jump rate rises when news coverage is high, and a replay of past windows in Bitcoin's history with the average trend removed. The price itself is centered, so the chance of finishing above today's price is under one half. A touch in the lognormal piece is a simulated path checked at each step, not double the chance of finishing past the level. The historical touch is the highest daily close, not an intraday high. Louder news widens both tails. It does not point the move up or down.
Data · Coinbase Exchange market data (daily candles)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
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Polymarket · updated Oct 10, 2026, 05:56 UTC
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 5-11?24h volume 54,139 USDC
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Our model
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