Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Read as: Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trade at or below $55,000 at any time between now and December 31, 2026 (daily close basis)?
· Coinbase Exchange daily close (UTC)
Probability of yes
7%range 3–11%
Three independent price models are averaged: a volatility-only lognormal model, a Merton jump-diffusion simulation (12,000 paths) whose jump rate rises with news coverage, and a replay of every comparable window in Bitcoin's history with its average trend removed. No drift is assumed anywhere, so the model takes no directional view.
Data · Coinbase Exchange market data (daily candles)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Polymarket · updated Oct 10, 2026, 07:02 UTC
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?24h volume 89,323 USDC
Market
10%
Our model
7%
Scale, −50 to +50
Model lower0 in lineModel higher