Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Dec 31, 2028?
Read as: Will S&P 500 (^GSPC) trade at or above 10,000 at any time between now and December 31, 2028 (daily close basis)?
· Yahoo Finance daily close
Probability of yes
Three independent price models are averaged: a volatility-only lognormal model, a Merton jump-diffusion simulation (12,000 paths) whose jump rate rises with news coverage, and a replay of every comparable window in S&P 500's history with its average trend removed. No drift is assumed anywhere, so the model takes no directional view.
Data · Yahoo Finance (daily closes)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 10, 2026, 07:02 UTC
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Dec 31, 2028?Market
74%
Our model
16%
Scale, −50 to +50
Zero means the two numbers match. Distance is how far apart they are, not a profit. The market figure is a price.