Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027? — Before 2028
Read as: Will the FOMC lower the federal funds target range at any scheduled meeting from now through December 2027?
· statement (verified against the effective )
Uncertain
46% chance of yes · range 35–56%
Models the as an actor with a dual mandate. A logistic regression fitted on monthly data since 1990 links its decisions to the gap between the policy rate and a Taylor (1993) rule, and to its tendency to keep moving in the same direction. That is blended with the raw frequency of each decision in the same policy stance.
Data · DBnomics (mirrors , and releases)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
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Kalshi · updated Oct 13, 2026, 01:01 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027? — Before 2028The venue title and the stored sentence are not the same event, so the two percents stay off this page.
Actor model: (any of 10 meetings)
cut
7%
hold
92%
hike
1%