Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026? — Before 2027
Read as: Will the FOMC lower the federal funds target range at any scheduled meeting from now through December 2026?
· Federal Reserve FOMC statement (verified against the effective federal funds rate)
Probability of yes
Models the FOMC as an actor with a dual mandate. A logistic regression fitted on monthly data since 1990 links its decisions to the gap between the policy rate and a Taylor (1993) rule, and to its tendency to keep moving in the same direction. That is blended with the raw frequency of each decision in the same policy stance.
Data · DBnomics (mirrors BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve releases)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 10, 2026, 08:09 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026? — Before 2027The venue title and the stored sentence are not the same event, so the two percents stay off this page.
Weights
Actor model: Fed reaction function (any of 2 meetings)
cut
7%
hold
92%
hike
1%
Models in the ensemble
- Fitted reaction function13% · weight 60%
logistic fit on 164 months; policy is 1.62 pts looser than the Taylor rule
- Persistence (same policy stance)