Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028? — Before 2029
Read as: Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at any scheduled meeting from now through December 2028?
· statement (verified against the effective )
Possibly
No
28% chance of yes · range 14–43%
Models the as an actor with a dual mandate. A logistic regression fitted on monthly data since 1990 links its decisions to the gap between the policy rate and a Taylor (1993) rule, and to its tendency to keep moving in the same direction. That is blended with the raw frequency of each decision in the same policy stance.
Data · DBnomics (mirrors , and releases)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 13, 2026, 01:01 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028? — Before 2029The venue title and the stored sentence are not the same event, so the two percents stay off this page.
Actor model: (any of 18 meetings)
cut
7%
hold
92%
hike
1%