Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Read as: Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at its October 2026 meeting?
· Federal Reserve FOMC statement (verified against the effective federal funds rate)
Probability of yes
Models the FOMC as an actor with a dual mandate. A logistic regression fitted on monthly data since 1990 links its decisions to the gap between the policy rate and a Taylor (1993) rule, and to its tendency to keep moving in the same direction. That is blended with the raw frequency of each decision in the same policy stance.
Data · DBnomics (mirrors BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve releases)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
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Polymarket · updated Oct 9, 2026, 16:34 UTC
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?24h volume 86,189 USDC
The venue title and the stored sentence are not the same event, so the two percents stay off this page.
Weights
Actor model: Fed reaction function
cut
7%
hold
92%
hike
1%
Models in the ensemble
- Fitted reaction function1% · weight 60%
logistic fit on 164 months; policy is 1.62 pts looser than the Taylor rule