How high will unemployment get before 2030? — Above 6%
Read as: Will the U.S. unemployment rate for December 2030 be above 6%, as first published?
· BLS Employment Situation release
Probability of yes
12%range 3–22%
Takes the latest published value and applies every historical 51-month change (full history and last decade), alongside a normal random walk. The models carry no trend assumption; the recent trend is shown for context only.
Data · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Public Data API
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 10, 2026, 10:05 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? — Above 6%The venue title and the stored sentence are not the same event, so the two percents stay off this page.
Earlier versions
Weights
Empirical change distribution
Models in the ensemble
- Historical changes (full history)15% · weight 35%
185 past 51-month changes over 20 years
- Historical changes (last decade)6% · weight 35%
120 changes since 2016