Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?
Read as: Will the U.S. unemployment rate for December 2028 be above 5%, as first published?
· BLS Employment Situation release
Probability of yes
22%range 10–35%
Takes the latest published value and applies every historical 27-month change (full history and last decade), alongside a normal random walk. The models carry no trend assumption; the recent trend is shown for context only.
Data · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Public Data API
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 10, 2026, 07:02 UTC
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2028 be above 5.0%?Market
66%
Our model
22%
Scale, −50 to +50
Model lower0 in lineModel higher
−50+50
Zero means the two numbers match. Distance is how far apart they are, not a profit. The market figure is a price.