Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?
Read as: Will U.S. real GDP growth (quarterly, annualized) for Q3 2026 be above 15%, as first published?
· BEA GDP advance estimate
Probability of yes
1%range 0–5%
Takes the latest published value and applies every historical 1-quarter change (full history and last decade), alongside a normal random walk. The models carry no trend assumption; the recent trend is shown for context only.
Data · DBnomics (mirrors BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve releases)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 10, 2026, 05:56 UTC
Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?Market
25%
Our model
1%
Scale, −50 to +50
Model lower0 in lineModel higher
−50+50
Zero means the two numbers match. Distance is how far apart they are, not a profit. The market figure is a price.