GDP growth in 2030? — 0.1% to 0.5%
Read as: Will U.S. real GDP growth (quarterly, annualized) for Q4 2030 be between 0.1% and 0.5% (inclusive), as first published?
· BEA GDP advance estimate
Probability of yes
3%range 0–7%
Takes the latest published value and applies every historical 18-quarter change (full history and last decade), alongside a normal random walk. The models carry no trend assumption; the recent trend is shown for context only.
Data · DBnomics (mirrors BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve releases)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 10, 2026, 07:19 UTC
GDP growth in 2030? — 0.1% to 0.5%Market
7%
Our model
3%
Scale, −50 to +50
Model lower0 in lineModel higher
−50+50
Zero means the two numbers match. Distance is how far apart they are, not a profit. The market figure is a price.