GDP growth in 2035? — 0.0% or Below
Read as: Will U.S. real GDP growth (quarterly, annualized) for Q4 2035 be below 0%, as first published?
· BEA GDP advance estimate
Probability of yes
Takes the latest published value and applies every historical 38-quarter change (full history and last decade), alongside a normal random walk. The models carry no trend assumption; the recent trend is shown for context only.
Data · DBnomics (mirrors BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve releases)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Market price
Kalshi · updated Oct 10, 2026, 08:42 UTC
GDP growth in 2035? — 0.0% or BelowMarket
11%
Our model
18%
Scale, −50 to +50
Zero means the two numbers match. Distance is how far apart they are, not a profit. The market figure is a price.
Earlier versions
Weights
Empirical change distribution
Models in the ensemble
- Historical changes (full history)29% · weight 35%
279 past 38-quarter changes over 79 years
- Historical changes (last decade)8% · weight 35%
40 changes since 2016
- Normal random walk17% · weight 30%
robust σ of 38-quarter changes = 2.30 pts
Base rate
11%
Scale, −50 to +50
Reference class: Share of quarters since 1996 with real GDP growth below 0% (n = 120)
What moved the number
- Pushes probability down
The latest reading of real GDP growth is 2.2% (2026-04), 2.20 pts above the 0% threshold with 38 quarters to go.
- Pushes probability up
Over the last decade, real GDP growth has typically moved 2.30 pts over 38 quarters. Closing the gap needs a 1.0-standard-deviation move.
Disagreements
Models disagree on real GDP growth
View A
Historical changes (last decade) says 8%: 40 changes since 2016
View B
Historical changes (full history) says 29%: 279 past 38-quarter changes over 79 years
What would change this
- If the next reading came in 0.5 pts higher (2.7%), the historical models would read about 17%.
- If the next reading came in 0.5 pts lower (1.7%), the historical models would read about 20%.