Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?
Read as: Will WTI crude oil futures (CL=F) trade at or above $150 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026 (daily close basis)?
· Yahoo Finance daily close
Probability of yes
Three price models are averaged: a volatility-only lognormal, a Merton jump-diffusion (12,000 paths) whose jump rate rises when news coverage is high, and a replay of past windows in WTI crude oil futures's history with the average trend removed. The price itself is centered, so the chance of finishing above today's price is under one half. A touch in the lognormal piece is a simulated path checked at each step, not double the chance of finishing past the level. The historical touch is the highest daily close, not an intraday high. Louder news widens both tails. It does not point the move up or down.
Data · Yahoo Finance (daily closes)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
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Polymarket · updated Oct 10, 2026, 05:03 UTC
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?24h volume 51,675 USDC
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