Will Donald Trump be president in 2030?
Read as: Will Donald Trump still hold office as President of the United States on December 31, 2030?
· Public record of who holds the office of President of the United States
Probability of yes
Treats staying in office as a survival process. Democracies: a small annual chance of leaving office outside elections (resignation, impeachment, death). A scheduled end of term cuts the chance of still being in office after that date. The question is Donald Trump still holding office on December 31, 2030.
Data · Duration reference class — public war, sanctions, and leader timelines (COW/UCDP style)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Weights
Leader survival by regime
Models in the ensemble
- Regime survival hazard3% · weight 100%
4.8% per year. democracies: a small annual chance of leaving office outside elections (resignation, impeachment, death)
Inputs
- Leader
- Donald Trump, 2 years in powerDuration reference class
- Regime
- democracyDuration reference class
- Annual hazard
- 4.8%Duration reference class
- Term end
- 2029-01-20
- News intensity (z)
- -0.49GDELT Project