Will gold be above $4000 on December 31, 2026?
Read as: Will Gold futures (GC=F) close at or above $4,000 on December 31, 2026?
· daily close
Possibly
Yes
73% chance of yes · range 66–79%
Three price models are averaged: a volatility-only , a (12,000 paths), and a replay of past windows in Gold futures's history with the average trend removed. The price itself is centered, so the chance of finishing above today's price is under one half. A touch in the piece is a simulated path checked at each step, not double the chance of finishing past the level. The historical touch is the highest daily close, not an intraday high. Today's news did not move this number.
Data · (daily closes)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Price-path
Models in the
- (volatility only)68% · 30%
blended volatility 21 a year, no drift
- with news catalyst72% · 40%
7.7 jumps a year historically. Today's news did not change that rate
- Historical replay78% · 30%