Will it be sunny in Honolulu tomorrow?
Read as: Will mean cloud cover in Honolulu, Hawaii, US be below 30% on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (local time)? Asked as a sunny day.
· observed/reanalysis daily data
Leaning
Yes
62% chance of yes · range 9–100%
Counts how many members of three independent global (, , ) show mean cloud cover below 30, then blends that with 35 years of local . get 90 of the at a 1-day lead; the rest goes to . The range treats each model as one atmosphere, not each member as its own trial.
Data · (, , )
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
+ blend
Models in the
- IFS 99% · 30%
51 of 51 members show mean cloud cover below 30
- 98% · 30%
31 of 31 members show mean cloud cover below 30
- 1% · 30%