Will it rain in London tomorrow?
Read as: Will at least 1 mm of precipitation fall in London, England, GB on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (local time)?
· observed/reanalysis daily data
Probably
No
7% chance of yes · range 0–26%
Counts how many members of three independent global (, , ) show at least 1 mm of precipitation, then blends that with 35 years of local . get 90 of the at a 1-day lead; the rest goes to . The range treats each model as one atmosphere, not each member as its own trial.
Data · (, , )
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
+ blend
Models in the
- IFS 1.0% · 30%
0 of 51 members show at least 1 mm of precipitation
- 2% · 30%
0 of 31 members show at least 1 mm of precipitation
- 11% · 30%
4 of 40 members show at least 1 mm of precipitation