Will it rain in Palm Desert tomorrow?
Read as: Will at least 1 mm of precipitation fall in Palm Desert, California, US on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (local time)?
· Open-Meteo observed/reanalysis daily data
Probability of yes
Counts how many members of three independent global ensembles (ECMWF, NOAA GFS, DWD ICON) show at least 1 mm of precipitation, then blends that with 35 years of local climatology. Ensembles get 90% of the weight at a 1-day lead; the rest goes to climatology. The range treats each model as one atmosphere, not each member as its own trial.
Data · Open-Meteo Ensemble API (ECMWF, NOAA GFS, DWD ICON)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Weights
Ensemble + climatology blend
Models in the ensemble
- ECMWF IFS ensemble99% · weight 30%
51 of 51 members show at least 1 mm of precipitation
- NOAA GFS ensemble98% · weight 30%
31 of 31 members show at least 1 mm of precipitation
- DWD ICON ensemble74% · weight 30%
30 of 40 members show at least 1 mm of precipitation
- Climatology (ERA5, 1991–2025)4% · weight 10%
23 of 525 days within a week of Oct 11