Will Southern California have an earthquake greater than a 8 this year?
Read as: Will at least one earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater occur in California between 2026-10-08 and 2026-12-31?
· USGS earthquake catalog
Probability of yes
0%range 0–2%
Counts magnitude 8+ earthquakes in California since 1990 and over the last 15 years, then treats arrivals as a Poisson process. The two rates are blended. The catalog is reliable at this magnitude; smaller quakes are not modeled.
Data · U.S. Geological Survey — earthquake catalog
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Weights
Poisson rate from the USGS catalog
Models in the ensemble
- Catalog rate since 19900.3% · weight 55%
0 events in 36 years (0.00/year)
- Rate over the last 15 years0.3% · weight 45%
0 events in 15 years (0.00/year)
Inputs
- Magnitude threshold
- 8+U.S. Geological Survey
- Region
- CaliforniaU.S. Geological Survey
- Window
- 2026-10-08 → 2026-12-31
- Long-run rate
- 0.00 per yearU.S. Geological Survey