Will the S&P 500 close above 6000 on December 31, 2026?

Three price models are averaged: a volatility-only lognormal, a Merton jump-diffusion (12,000 paths) whose jump rate rises when news coverage is high, and a replay of past windows in S&P 500's history with the average trend removed. The price itself is centered, so the chance of finishing above today's price is under one half. A touch in the lognormal piece is a simulated path checked at each step, not double the chance of finishing past the level. The historical touch is the highest daily close, not an intraday high. Louder news widens both tails. It does not point the move up or down.

Data · Yahoo Finance (daily closes)

Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms