Will the SPY be above $800 by November 2026?
Read as: Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trade at or above $800 at any time between now and November 30, 2026 (daily close basis)?
· Yahoo Finance daily close
Probability of yes
Three price models are averaged: a volatility-only lognormal, a Merton jump-diffusion (12,000 paths) whose jump rate rises when news coverage is high, and a replay of past windows in SPDR S&P 500 ETF's history with the average trend removed. The price itself is centered, so the chance of finishing above today's price is under one half. A touch in the lognormal piece is a simulated path checked at each step, not double the chance of finishing past the level. The historical touch is the highest daily close, not an intraday high. Louder news widens both tails. It does not point the move up or down.
Data · Yahoo Finance (daily closes)
Not financial, election, or medical advice. Terms
Sources and the record
Asked
Weights
Price-path ensemble
Models in the ensemble
- Lognormal (volatility only)50% · weight 30%
blended volatility 13% a year, no drift
- Jump-diffusion with news catalyst54% · weight 40%
8.1 jumps a year historically, scaled 1.00x by current news coverage
- Historical replay50% · weight 30%
2,478 past 36-trading-day windows over 10 years, drift removed
Inputs
- Last price
- 778.57 (2026-10-09)Yahoo Finance
- Threshold
- 800.00 (touch, above)