Dow rises 198 points while the S&P 500 ends almost unchanged

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,807.79, down 0.05%, a small move for the first session of a week that includes bank results and the CPI.[1] The Dow rose 198.22 points, or 0.38%, to 51,853.17, and the Nasdaq fell 0.44% to 27,246.[1] The bond market was closed for Columbus Day, which left Friday's 5.24% 10-year Treasury yield as the last cash print. The Associated Press said that yield had touched its highest level since 2002 and then eased.[2] The Federal Reserve H.15 series, the official constant-maturity yield, last published 5.22% for October 8, and the next update is due October 13.[3]

Wednesday's CPI is the release that can move that yield once the bond market reopens. Economists expect September CPI at 3.6%, up from 3.4% in August.[2] The BLS schedule puts the consumer price index on Wednesday, October 14.[4] Oil is the mechanical reason the preview is higher. Brent futures settled at $106.65 a barrel, up 1.84%, and WTI settled at $93.74, up 2.06%, after the weekend strikes on Riyadh's airport.[1] The Associated Press noted that higher oil prices feed gasoline directly and pass through diesel into the cost of shipped goods.[2] Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who votes on policy this year, said the central bank should move relatively quickly toward a more restrictive stance because inflation pressure has broadened.[1] She said it on a day when cash Treasuries could not reprice the comment. The Associated Press also reported that the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate at its last meeting, and that another increase is expected before the year ends.[2]

The equity calendar arrives first. Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report quarterly results on Tuesday, and Bank of America reports on Wednesday.[2] Those prints land before the CPI, in a rates market that prices an October hike as a low chance. CME's FedWatch tool put the chance of an FOMC increase at the October 27-28 meeting under 22% on Monday, compared with 17.7% on Friday.[1] A hold in October can still sit beside a hike later in the year, which is how the Associated Press described the expectation.[2] The session left the S&P 500 nearly unchanged, Brent at $106.65, and the 10-year where Friday left it.[1][2]

Earlier calls

• Brent holding a print at or above $100 before Monday's U.S. cash open: hit. The early quote was $103.18 and a later December Brent quote was $105.44, both before that open, which has now passed.[5][6]
• The ICE Brent December contract settling on October 12 at or above $100: hit. Brent futures settled at $106.65, and December Brent had already traded at $105.44 before the U.S. open.[1][6]
• A public confirmation from Moscow of a reciprocal energy ceasefire by the end of October 12 UTC: still open. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said contacts are continuing, and that the Kremlin would speak when it had something to say. The UTC day is not finished.[7]
• September CPI at or above 3.5% and at or above 3.6%: both still open ahead of the BLS release on Wednesday, October 14.[2][4]
• An FOMC increase at the October 27-28 meeting, and a federal funds target top at or above 4.25% on December 31: both still open. Futures put the October increase under a 22% chance on Monday, compared with 17.7% on Friday, which keeps the October call leaning toward a hold.[1][8]
• At least two distinct tanker-news days in the Strait of Hormuz or off Oman from October 12 through October 18, another U.S. landfalling hurricane after Isaias through November 30, and front-month Brent at or above $90 on December 31: all still open.

No model question has graded since the morning receipt, so this edition's closes table is empty. On the scorecard, 10 resolved forecasts carry a Brier score of 0.1967, weather grades carry 0.566, and prices carry 0.0394.[9] Stored probabilities and outcomes stay as graded.