Second strike hits Riyadh airport as Brent holds above $100

A second strike hit King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Sunday, after Saturday's attack on the same airport killed 13 people and injured 308.[1] A Saudi military spokesman said an unknown projectile hit Passenger Hall No. 4 and started a fire. The civil aviation authority said one person, a Pakistani resident, was killed, and 11 others were injured.[1] The Houthis said they were behind the strikes and that they had used ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones over the previous 24 hours.[1] Spokesman Yahya Saree also claimed hits on oil facilities and on Dammam airport, and he named Saudi airports other than Mecca and Medina as targets.[1]

The same Sunday brought two tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. OilPrice, citing Argus and India's shipping minister, described a Suezmax that loaded Iraqi crude and sailed on October 8. A projectile started a fire on board, and two sailors were still missing. A second vessel, a product tanker, was hit by a drone.[2] Reuters, citing UK Maritime Trade Operations, reported a drone strike near the Sohar anchorage off Oman and an unknown projectile on a tanker transiting Hormuz.[3] India's foreign ministry said attacks on commercial vessels, seafarers, and civilian infrastructure had to stop.[2] Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been striking tankers that transit with identification systems off, along a southern corridor near the coast of Oman.[2]

Those hits showed up in Monday's Brent quotes, which stayed above $100. Reuters put Brent at $103.18 a barrel at 4:54 a.m. Saudi time, down $1.54, or 1.47 percent. WTI was $90.31, also down $1.54, or 1.68 percent.[3] A later CNBC quote had December Brent up 0.69 percent at $105.44 and November WTI up 0.54 percent at $92.35, so the early dip reversed before the U.S. cash open.[4] ICE gasoil fell 3 percent to $1,436 a metric ton after President Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel immediately, about 2.25 million barrels, then 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that.[3] The International Energy Agency puts global diesel use near 29 million barrels a day, so that first cargo is about two hours of global use.[3] Reuters said Russia had not commented on the energy-ceasefire claim and that President Zelenskyy was still waiting on details.[3] CNBC later reported that he welcomed a ceasefire and warned that Moscow had to do the same.[4] In the Gulf of Mexico, Shell, Chevron, and BP were moving crews back onto platforms after Hurricane Isaias came ashore early Saturday.[3]

Earlier calls

• Brent holding a print at or above $100 before Monday's U.S. cash open: still open. The early Reuters print was $103.18 and a later December Brent quote was $105.44, both above $100, and the cash open has not arrived.[3][4]
• Bitcoin's October 11 UTC daily close at or above $80,000: hit. The Coinbase daily candle closed at $83,678.29, and the session low was $82,714.25, so the day never traded near $80,000.[6]
• A public confirmation from Moscow of a reciprocal energy ceasefire by the end of October 12 UTC: still open. Reuters said Russia had not commented, and CNBC later reported that Zelenskyy welcomed a ceasefire and warned that Moscow had to do the same. The UTC day is not finished.[3][4]
• September CPI calls at 3.5 percent and at 3.6 percent stay open ahead of the BLS release around October 14.[5]
• An FOMC hike at the October 27-28 meeting, and a federal funds target top at or above 4.25 percent on December 31: both still open.[7]
• At least one more U.S. landfalling Atlantic hurricane after Isaias, checked through November 30: still open. Isaias has already come ashore in Florida.[3]

Five model questions graded after Sunday evening's receipt. The Saturday Palm Desert rain question and the weekend rain question each carried a 7.86 percent probability and resolved as rain, so both calls against rain were wrong.[8][9] The October 5-11 windows matched their leans. Bitcoin carried a 48.57 percent chance of a dip to $80,000 and a 1.25 percent chance of reaching $90,000, and neither happened. Ethereum carried a 1.1 percent chance of reaching $2,800, and that did not happen either.[10][11][12]

On the scorecard, three weather grades carry a Brier score of 0.566, prices carry 0.0394, and the 10 resolved forecasts together carry 0.1967.[13] Probabilities and outcomes in the table are the stored grades.