PM Receipts for October 10, 2026

Brief

Coinbase's BTC-USD daily candle for October 9, 2026 closed at $82,544.71. That is under $86,000, so the question of a close at or above $86,000 on that date resolved no. The stored probability was 1.03 percent, a directional no, and the call was right.

At 22:04 UTC on October 10 the same market last traded at $82,963.69. The October 10 UTC candle is still open, so the separate question of a close at or above $80,000 on October 10 is not graded in this receipt.

U.S. cash markets were already shut for the weekend. The S&P 500's Friday, October 9 close was 7,811.54, and gold futures (GC=F) closed at $4,216.30 that session. The last FRED prints before the weekend: the 10-year constant maturity at 5.22 percent on October 8, the effective federal funds rate at 3.88 percent that day, and the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent for September.

• Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily candle, October 9, 2026
• Graded question: Bitcoin above $86,000 on October 9
• Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD ticker, 22:04 UTC October 10
• Open question: Bitcoin above $80,000 on October 10
• Yahoo Finance S&P 500 (^GSPC) history
• Yahoo Finance gold futures (GC=F) history
• FRED 10-year Treasury constant maturity (DGS10)
• FRED effective federal funds rate (DFF)
• FRED unemployment rate (UNRATE)