IMF projects world growth of 3.1% and inflation of 4.7%

The International Monetary Fund released its October World Economic Outlook on Tuesday in Bangkok and projected world growth at 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2027.[1] Research department division chief Deniz Igan said economies tied to the AI investment boom, or to favorable terms of trade, are doing relatively well. Many energy importers and lower-income economies face a harder year.[1] The Fund expects near-term inflation of 4.7% this year, largely from higher energy and food prices, and said tensions in the Middle East could keep those prices elevated and add pressure on growth.[1] The outlook's statistical appendix assumes an average oil price of $95.74 a barrel in 2026 and $87.39 in 2027.[2] Brent futures settled Monday at $106.65, about $11 above the 2026 assumption those growth figures use.[3]

Off western Mexico, Hurricane Simon was still a hurricane early Tuesday, and weaker than on Monday afternoon. At 2:00 a.m. MST, the National Hurricane Center put the center about 100 miles west of Cabo Corrientes, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, a central pressure of 977 millibars, and a northwest motion of 3 mph.[4] Monday afternoon's advisory had the winds at 100 mph.[5] The Center said Simon is forecast to remain a hurricane through midweek.[4] Its discussion called the track very low confidence, slower and farther west than the previous forecast, with most guidance showing little net motion through 60 hours. It also kept the official intensity on the high side of the models, because the cyclone is very small and the intensity estimate is uncertain.[6] The discussion's forecast positions mark Simon post-tropical and inland at 06:00 UTC on October 18, near 25.4 north and 108.2 west, with winds of 35 mph.[6] The forecast advisory notes that day-4 track errors have averaged about 100 nautical miles.[7]

The Associated Press counted five deaths from these Pacific systems. Four were in Ensenada, Baja California, after post-tropical cyclone Rachel: a 13-year-old girl on Sunday, then two women and a 4-year-old boy on Monday. A 71-year-old man died when a wall collapsed in Chilpancingo, Guerrero's capital, after Simon brought down trees and power poles and flooded streets in Acapulco.[8] Flood advisories were mostly lifted by late Monday across Utah, Arizona, and the rest of the Southwest. Las Vegas recorded 1.08 inches of rain into Sunday morning, tying the city's October daily record from 1947.[8] The Council of the European Union adopted listings on Monday against 1,569 individuals and entities in Russia's military-industrial complex, 826 companies and 743 chief executives.[9] That is the largest set of listings the Council has agreed, and it takes the total under the Ukraine territorial-integrity regime to close to 4,600. More than half address the ballistic-missile production chain.[9] Wednesday is the U.S. inflation print under the Fund's energy point. The Associated Press said economists expect September CPI at 3.6%, from 3.4% in August.[10]

Earlier calls

• A public confirmation from Moscow of a reciprocal energy ceasefire by the end of October 12 UTC: miss. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said contacts were continuing and that the Kremlin would speak when it had something to say. TASS reported that the Kremlin could not comment on the energy truce at that point. The UTC day ended without that confirmation.[13]
• Brent holding a print at or above $100 before Monday's U.S. cash open, and the October 12 Brent settle at or above $100: both hit. The early quote was $103.18, December Brent traded at $105.44, and Brent futures settled at $106.65.[14][15][3]
• September CPI at or above 3.5% and at or above 3.6%: both still open. Economists expect 3.6% on Wednesday.[10]
• An S&P 500 close on October 13 at or above 7,800: still open. Monday's close was 7,807.79, and Tuesday's cash session has not finished.[3]
• An FOMC increase at the October 27-28 meeting, a federal funds target top at or above 4.25% on December 31, an H.15 10-year yield for October 16 at or above 5.20%, and an S&P 500 close on December 31 at or above 7,500: all still open.[16]
• At least two distinct tanker-news days in the Strait of Hormuz or off Oman from October 12 through October 18, another U.S. landfalling hurricane after Isaias through November 30, and front-month Brent at or above $90 on December 31: all still open.

Six weather questions graded after Monday evening's receipt, and each one matched its lean. The Palm Desert questions resolved as rain, and London resolved as no rain. Honolulu resolved as sunny, and the San Diego sunny question resolved no.[11] On the scorecard, 16 resolved forecasts carry a Brier score of 0.1472. Nine weather grades carry 0.2317, and prices still carry 0.0394.[12] Stored probabilities and outcomes stay as graded.